For months conservatives have been patiently explaining that, unless Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner chooses to do so, there is simply no risk of the United States defaulting on its debts regardless of whether Congress raises the debt limit by August 2nd. The facts are simple and straight forward: the federal government takes in about $170 billion a month in revenues, but it only pays out $29 billion a month in interest payments on the debt. So Geithner could easily meet all of the federal government's debt obligations and still have around $140 billion left over for other spending. That $140 billion is far short of the $300 billion in spending the federal government is scheduled to spend for all of August, but missing any those payments would not qualify as a default on the debt.
When conservatives would make these elementary points, outlets like Politico labeled them "default deniers." But now, as Geithner's self-imposed August 2nd deadline looms, many of the left are beginning to realize the conservatives were right. Witness Talking Points Memo founder Josh Marshall, who admits, under the header "Dumbfounded," that "there are many things I do not understand about the progress of this so-called debt negotiation." Marshall continues, "There's enough money coming into the Treasury to service the payments on the current debt. But if you don't borrow more money you have to shut down vast amounts of federal outlays."
This is all true. But then Marshall continues: "And the most logical places to start are with Social Security payments and Medicare reimbursements. Stuff like cutting Social Security checks in half starting the following week. ... So why the adamant refusal to put this in front of the public? It seems quite clear to me that if what was coming in early August was an immediate 50% cut in Social Security payments and/or a similar cut in salaries to members of the military and a lot else that the tenor of this whole conversation would be quite different."
But there is nothing "logical" about cutting Social Security and Medicare payments. As the Bipartisan Policy Center has confirmed, Geithner could pay: the interest on the debt, all Social Security obligations, all Medicare and Medicaid obligations, all Defense contractor bills, all Veterans payments, and all active duty troops; and still have almost $7 billion left over for other items.
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